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In a significant blow to the Myanmar Junta, the Myanmar military regime, armed resistance groups captured the strategic northeast regional command base in Lashio on August 3, 2024. Lashio, located in Shan State, serves as the headquarters of the Myanmar military’s northeast regional command and is one of the most heavily fortified bases in the country. This marks the first time since the February 2021 coup that the military has lost a regional command base.
Collapse of Cease-fire Sparks Renewed Offensive
The recent advances by the resistance are part of Operation 10-27, initiated by a coalition of ethnic minority armed groups known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance. This alliance, comprising the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and Arakan Army (AA), resumed their offensive in June 2024 after the collapse of a cease-fire brokered by China in January. The operation has resulted in the capture of over 12,000 square kilometers of territory, including Lashio.
Cooperation Among Resistance Forces against the Myanmar Junta
The success of the resistance in Lashio was bolstered by the increased cooperation between ethnic armed groups and local People’s Defense Forces (PDFs). The TNLA and Mandalay PDF played key roles in the assault on Lashio, showcasing a new level of coordination in the fight against the junta. This victory has demonstrated the ability of resistance forces to engage in and win conventional urban warfare, a significant shift from the largely rural guerrilla tactics employed thus far.
Implications for the Myanmar Junta
The loss of Lashio raises critical questions about the junta’s ability to maintain control over other key regions, particularly as the resistance moves closer to major cities like Mandalay. Analysts suggest that the junta’s weakening grip on power could lead to further losses in the coming months, potentially threatening its control over the capital Naypyidaw and the largest city, Yangon.
Myanmar Junta Admits Pressure in Shan State
In a rare public acknowledgment, junta leader Min Aung Hlaing admitted on August 6 that the military is under significant pressure in Shan State. He accused foreign technology experts of aiding the resistance, a statement widely interpreted as a veiled reference to China, which has complex ties with both the Myanmar military and some of the ethnic armed groups.
Growing Resistance and Civilian Impact
The ongoing conflict has exacted a heavy toll on Myanmar’s civilian population, with over 5,000 estimated to have been killed and more than 2.8 million displaced since the coup. As the resistance gains momentum, there is likely to be an increase in military and civilian casualties, further destabilizing the region.
The capture of Lashio represents a turning point in Myanmar’s civil war, with the resistance now poised to challenge the junta’s hold on the country’s heartland.