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The long-standing tension between Somalia’s federal government and the semi-autonomous state of Jubaland has reached an alarming new level. Courts from both sides issued mutual arrest warrants on Wednesday, accusing each other’s leaders of grave offenses. Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud are at the center of this escalating conflict, raising concerns of potential instability in the fragile nation.
Federal Court Targets Ahmed Madobe
Somalia’s Banadir Regional Court accused Jubaland’s Ahmed Madobe of treason, undermining national unity, and sharing sensitive information with foreign entities. The arrest warrant, issued at the request of Somalia’s Attorney General, charges Madobe under Articles 184, 186, and 217 of the Somali Penal Code. The federal government views Madobe’s recent re-election for a third term as unconstitutional, citing a 2023 agreement to transition Somalia to universal suffrage elections. Federal authorities argue that Madobe’s extended tenure violates constitutional limits.
Jubaland Responds with Counter Warrant
In a dramatic counter-move, Jubaland’s First Instance Court issued its own arrest warrant for Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. Citing treason, incitement to rebellion, and destabilization, the court claims Mohamud’s actions undermine national unity and incite conflict in Jubaland. The warrant appears to be a direct response to Mogadishu’s legal and political maneuvers against Madobe. Jubaland’s state media outlet, Jubaland State Television, confirmed the issuance of the warrant.
Military Mobilization and International Concerns
Amid the legal battles, military tensions are rising in the southern region. Federal forces, including elite Haram’ad and Gorgor units, have reportedly moved near Ras Kamboni, a strategic town close to Kenya’s border. Jubaland forces have responded by fortifying their positions. While some reports suggested that African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) troops were involved in securing Jubaland’s state elections, ATMIS has denied these claims.
Ahmed Madobe’s Controversial Leadership
Ahmed Madobe, who first assumed leadership in 2012 after ousting Al-Shabaab from Kismayo, has been a divisive figure in Somali politics. While credited with stabilizing parts of Jubaland, his administration has been criticized for perpetuating clan-based power structures that undermine Somalia’s federal system. Madobe’s re-election has been rejected by opposition factions within Jubaland, further fracturing the state’s political landscape.
Calls for Dialogue
The international community has expressed alarm over the escalating conflict. The United Nations, African Union, and European Union have issued joint statements urging both parties to prioritize dialogue over confrontation. They have called for Jubaland to rejoin Somalia’s National Consultative Council as a critical step toward resolving federal-state disputes.
The Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) also weighed in, warning that the deepening crisis threatens not only Somalia’s fragile political progress but also regional stability. “This volatile situation could create opportunities for destabilizing forces such as Al-Shabaab to exploit,” the ONLF stated, calling for immediate de-escalation.
Implications for Somalia’s Future
The unfolding crisis underscores Somalia’s complex challenges in balancing federalism with national unity. While the federal government pushes for a universal suffrage system, Jubaland and other regions resist centralization, fearing loss of autonomy. The mutual arrest warrants highlight a breakdown in trust and dialogue, with potential ramifications for Somalia’s state-building and security efforts.
As tensions rise, all eyes remain on whether Somalia’s leaders will heed calls for restraint or plunge the country into deeper instability.