Facebook Twitter (X) Instagram Somali Magazine - People's Magazine
Turkey’s recent success in brokering peace between Ethiopia and Somalia has showcased its growing influence in Africa. The agreement, hailed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as a “historic development,” ended nearly a decade-long rivalry between the two countries. It grants Ethiopia access to Somali ports under Somali sovereignty, resolving contentious issues surrounding Somaliland’s de facto independence. This outcome, however, complicates Egypt’s regional strategy, particularly its stance against Ethiopia regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
Background: Tensions in the Horn of Africa
The Ethiopia-Somalia conflict escalated earlier this year when Ethiopia allegedly struck a deal with Somaliland to lease a port in exchange for recognition. This sparked protests from Somalia, which viewed the agreement as a violation of its sovereignty. Egypt, embroiled in its water dispute with Ethiopia, sided with Somalia to pressure Addis Ababa.
Egypt’s involvement included deploying 10,000 troops and supplying arms to Mogadishu, citing security concerns. However, these moves drew criticism, with Ethiopia warning that weapons could fall into the hands of terrorist groups like al-Shabaab.
Turkey’s Diplomatic Victory
By mediating peace, Turkey disrupted Egypt’s influence in the region. Erdogan’s growing ties with Ethiopia and Somalia have allowed Ankara to assert itself as a stabilizing force in the Horn of Africa, effectively sidelining Cairo. This is particularly significant as relations between Turkey and Egypt have been improving after a decade of tensions.
The U.S. Absence and Strategic Implications
Turkey’s success in the Horn of Africa highlights a power vacuum left by the U.S., which has been less engaged in the region. This void has enabled Ankara to position itself as a critical player, not just in Africa but also in the Middle East.
For the U.S., this development serves as a wake-up call to reinvigorate its presence in Africa. Washington’s ability to mediate disputes like the Nile conflict could help counter Turkey’s growing influence while maintaining stability in one of the world’s most strategically vital regions.
The Broader Impact on Egyptian Strategy
The Ethiopian-Somali agreement weakens Egypt’s leverage in the Horn of Africa, forcing Cairo to reassess its approach. While warming ties with Turkey could offer opportunities for collaboration, the deal underscores Egypt’s declining regional influence.
Turkey’s Expanding Global Influence
Turkey’s role in the Horn of Africa is part of a broader strategy to expand its global footprint. From Africa to the Middle East, Erdogan’s government is actively challenging traditional power dynamics, often at the expense of the U.S. and its allies.
Conclusion: A Shifting Geopolitical Landscape
Turkey’s mediation between Ethiopia and Somalia marks a turning point in regional diplomacy, reshaping alliances and power structures in the Horn of Africa. For Egypt and the U.S., this development underscores the need for a recalibrated approach to maintain influence in this strategically critical region.