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Friedrich Merz’s victory signals stronger German support for Ukraine, as coalition talks with the SPD begin and defense spending debates intensify
BERLIN — Ukraine emerged as a key winner in Germany’s recent election, as Friedrich Merz, a strong advocate for bolstering support to Kyiv, prepares to lead the next government. The outcome signals a shift in Germany’s stance on the war in Ukraine, with sitting Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who has been criticized for his hesitancy in ramping up aid, set to leave office.
On Monday, Merz confirmed that his conservative alliance is aiming to establish a two-party coalition with the center-left Social Democrats (SPD). According to him, negotiations are already in progress, and he hopes to have the coalition in place by Easter, which falls in the third week of April. The change in leadership comes at a crucial moment, as Ukraine faces mounting challenges while the Trump administration and Russian President Vladimir Putin engage in peace talks that exclude European leaders.
For Ukraine, the prospect of a German government under Merz is a promising development. On the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Merz reaffirmed his commitment to Kyiv, stating on X (formerly Twitter): “Europe remains firmly on Ukraine’s side. Now more than ever, we need to put Ukraine in a position of strength.” He emphasized that Ukrainian leaders must be directly involved in any discussions regarding the resolution of the war.
One of the key figures expected to have an influential role in the new government is German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. As one of the SPD’s most vocal supporters of Ukraine, Pistorius has gained significant popularity in Germany in recent years and could prove to be an ideal coalition partner for Merz.
Speaking to German public broadcaster ARD on Sunday, Pistorius confirmed his willingness to participate in coalition talks with Merz’s conservatives. “I see my role quite simply as someone who is in the leadership ranks of the party,” he said.
In an interview published on Saturday, Pistorius highlighted the need for Germany and NATO to be prepared for potential threats from Russia. “If Putin attacks, we must be fit to wage war,” he asserted. His statement aligns with ongoing efforts among NATO members to bolster defense budgets. New NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has urged member states to invest “much more” in defense, surpassing the current benchmark of 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has reportedly suggested that NATO allies should increase their defense spending to 5 percent of GDP. This push for higher military expenditure has sparked debate in Germany, where strict fiscal policies have long been in place.
To accommodate a significant boost in defense spending, Pistorius has proposed reforming Germany’s debt brake—a constitutional mechanism that limits budget deficits. He argued that strict adherence to the debt brake is no longer viable, given the current geopolitical climate. “I think it is politically wrong to rigidly adhere to the debt brake in this situation,” Pistorius explained. “If we finance the necessary expenditure for our defense from the normal budget, this strangles the state’s ability to act, endangers social security, and thus strengthens extremist parties.”
The debt brake, introduced by then-Chancellor Angela Merkel in 2009, restricts the structural budget deficit to just 0.35 percent of GDP in normal times. While initially intended to ensure fiscal responsibility, it has faced growing criticism for failing to account for modern economic and security challenges.
Pistorius has also expressed support for Germany’s involvement in a European initiative to deploy peacekeepers to Ukraine. However, he stressed that such a mission could only take place once active combat operations have ceased.
With Germany’s new leadership set to take shape in the coming months, the country’s role in European defense and its support for Ukraine are likely to expand significantly. Merz’s government is expected to push for stronger military capabilities while ensuring Ukraine remains a key focus in Europe’s strategic calculations. If successful, these policy shifts could mark a turning point in Germany’s approach to both NATO commitments and the ongoing war in Ukraine.