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Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud met with Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi on Sunday to deepen military and trade cooperation, while trying to balance rising tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Nile River and the Red Sea.
During the meeting in Cairo, both leaders agreed to speed up the implementation of a defense agreement made in January. This pact allows Egyptian military trainers to help build the capacity of Somali forces, especially those protecting Red Sea shipping routes. The two countries also discussed plans to improve trade ties, including launching a direct shipping route between Mogadishu and Egypt’s Suez port.
Somali officials said military aid from Egypt — including armoured vehicles and artillery delivered in 2023 — will now be part of a larger plan to re-equip the Somali National Army. Egypt has also committed to send up to 1,000 troops to support Somalia under the African Union’s next peacekeeping mission once the current ATMIS mission ends.
Cairo’s interest in Somalia comes as Egypt continues to pressure Ethiopia over the future of the Nile’s waters. Ethiopia’s nearly completed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has been a major point of dispute, with Egypt demanding a legally binding agreement to ensure water flow downstream.
Adding to the tensions, Ethiopia signed a controversial agreement in January 2024 that gives it naval and commercial access to the Somaliland port of Berbera for 50 years. Somalia strongly opposed the deal, calling it an attack on its sovereignty. In response, Somalia began aligning more closely with countries like Egypt, Eritrea, and Djibouti to push back against Ethiopia’s growing influence in the region.
That Berbera deal was later put on hold after Turkey helped mediate an agreement known as the Ankara Declaration in December 2024. However, the competition between Egypt and Ethiopia for influence in Somalia remains intense.
Although Somalia says it is neutral, both Cairo and Addis Ababa are working hard to win Somali support. Egyptian diplomats have reportedly been lobbying Somalia to back their position ahead of the next round of Nile talks, scheduled for September in Washington.
Analysts say Somalia is trying to get the best out of both relationships. Egypt is seen as a potential partner for upgrading Somali ports and training its coast guard, while Ethiopia provides scholarships and military training opportunities.
“Somalia wants to benefit from both Egypt and Ethiopia without being seen as choosing sides,” a senior Somali diplomat said, speaking anonymously. “We are walking a tightrope.”
Experts warn that publicly leaning too far toward either Egypt or Ethiopia could risk damaging critical partnerships. “Somalia cannot afford to look like it’s taking sides in the Nile dispute,” said Abdisalam Haji Ahmed from the Institute for Political Studies in Mogadishu.
Cairo’s concerns also go beyond the Nile. Egypt and Djibouti have jointly stated that only countries with Red Sea coastlines should be responsible for securing those waters — which handle about 10% of global sea trade. This aligns with Somalia’s position on controlling its own maritime territory.
President Hassan Sheikh is expected to appear before Somalia’s Parliament on Tuesday. Lawmakers want him to explain how he plans to maintain the country’s neutral position while still receiving military and development aid from both Egypt and Ethiopia.
Meanwhile, more Egyptian weapons are expected to arrive in Somalia later this year — a move Ethiopia has already criticized as potentially destabilizing.
The real test of Somalia’s diplomatic balancing act will come during the upcoming World Bank-mediated Nile negotiations. Until then, Somalia continues to walk a fine line between two powerful neighbors, trying to secure its national interests without becoming a pawn in a regional power struggle.