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Somalia has adopted a new national anticipatory action strategy aimed at predicting and responding to climate-related crises before they become full disasters. This marks a major shift from the country’s traditional approach, which has largely focused on reacting after emergencies have already caused widespread suffering. The change comes at a time when drought, mass displacement and severe funding cuts are leaving millions of Somalis at risk of hunger and malnutrition.
The strategy was endorsed during a three-day conference in Mogadishu and is being seen as a key step toward building a more proactive and prepared humanitarian system. It will rely on data and technology to forecast climate shocks and identify early warning signs. Different tools—such as climate monitoring, displacement reports, food market trends and rainfall patterns—will be linked together. When these indicators show a growing risk, they will automatically trigger early support to communities. This support could include cash transfers, water trucking, livestock feed and emergency nutrition supplies.
According to Mohamud Macalin Abdulle, the Commissioner of the Somali Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA), the country can no longer afford to wait for disasters to worsen before acting. “Without early action, we will continue to move from one emergency to another — always too late,” he said, emphasizing that this plan is the result of years of technical work and leadership within the government.
The need for early intervention has become urgent as drought conditions continue to intensify. Areas such as Puntland, Mudug, Galmudug and Somaliland are experiencing severe water shortages after a fourth consecutive failed rainy season. In Nugaal, nearly 20,000 people have left their homes in search of water and pasture, highlighting how quickly conditions are deteriorating. Water prices have also soared, with a 200-litre barrel in Qardho costing up to $15—an amount many families simply cannot afford.
At the national level, the humanitarian situation remains alarming. Current data indicates that 3.4 million people in Somalia are facing crisis levels of food insecurity or worse. This includes more than 624,000 people in Emergency phase, meaning their survival is at immediate risk. Projections show that by December, the number of people experiencing crisis or emergency hunger could reach 4.4 million, almost one-quarter of the country’s population.
Children are among the most vulnerable. Humanitarian agencies estimate that by mid-2026, about 1.85 million children will suffer from acute malnutrition. Of these, 421,000 are likely to experience severe acute malnutrition, a life-threatening condition that requires urgent treatment. Most of these cases are expected in southern and central regions, where communities have been repeatedly hit by drought, conflict and displacement.
Despite the rising needs, humanitarian assistance in Somalia is shrinking dramatically due to deep funding cuts. The World Food Programme reports that only 350,000 people will receive food aid in November, compared to 1.1 million in August. Essential health services are also collapsing, with at least 200 health facilities closed across the country. More than 60 boreholes remain broken because there is no money to repair them, leaving communities without reliable access to safe water.
WFP’s Director of Emergency Preparedness and Response, Ross Smith, warned that hunger is rising at the same time that resources are drying up. Aid organizations fear the situation could worsen significantly in 2025. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) revealed that funding for the 2025 Somalia Humanitarian Response Plan has been reduced by 74 percent. As a result, planned support has dropped from 4.6 million people to just 1.3 million. These cuts are linked to major reductions by U.S. donors under the 2025 Rescissions Act.
The anticipatory action strategy is supported by several partners, including FAO, WFP, IFRC, IGAD, OCHA and the Danish Refugee Council through the EU-funded SCALAA project. It is built around six key pillars: early warning systems, identifying risks, integrating data, preparing institutions, strengthening communities and ensuring financing is available before crises escalate.
Humanitarian experts believe this approach could save lives by reducing losses, protecting livelihoods and preventing displacement. However, they caution that for the strategy to succeed, Somalia must secure dependable funding and improve coordination between federal and state authorities. Without strong cooperation and long-term investment, they fear the country could face conditions as devastating as the 2011 famine, which killed more than 250,000 people.
The future steps will depend on how quickly the stabilization force can be organized, whether all parties cooperate with its deployment, and how negotiations progress in the months ahead. For now, the resolution stands as one of the strongest international signals calling for a permanent ceasefire, rebuilding efforts, and a political process that could eventually lead to lasting peace in the region.