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High-stakes negotiations between Somalia and Ethiopia, currently mediated by Turkey, are teetering on the brink of collapse due to a significant impasse between the two delegations. The primary issue at the center of the deadlock is Ethiopia’s insistence that the current Somali administration in Mogadishu honor agreements previously signed by former Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
Somali Delegation’s Proposal and Ethiopia’s Concerns
During the negotiations, the Somali delegation offered to grant Ethiopia access to Somali waters under the terms and conditions outlined by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). In return, Mogadishu requested that Addis Ababa withdraw its Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Somaliland. This proposal, however, was coupled with a refusal by the Somali delegates to uphold commitments made by the previous Somali administration.
The Ethiopian delegation responded with deep concerns, citing the risk that any agreement signed with the current Somali administration could be nullified by future Somali governments. This concern stems from the volatile nature of Somali politics and the potential for future administrations to reverse decisions made by their predecessors.
Turkish Mediation and Extension of Talks
The disagreement has led to a significant deadlock in the Ankara talks, raising fears of a complete breakdown in negotiations. However, in a last-minute effort to prevent collapse, Turkish diplomats managed to persuade both sides to extend the negotiations for one more day. This extension provides a narrow window for further discussions, but the path to a resolution remains uncertain.
Implications for Regional Relations
The ongoing negotiations are critical for the future of Ethiopia-Somalia relations and have broader implications for the Horn of Africa region. The issues at stake, including access to maritime resources and territorial agreements, are central to the diplomatic and economic interests of both nations.
As the negotiations continue, the international community is closely monitoring the developments, with hopes that a diplomatic solution can be reached. The outcome of these talks will likely shape the future of Ethiopia-Somalia relations and impact the stability and cooperation within the region.
The next round of discussions will be pivotal in determining whether the two sides can bridge their differences or if the negotiations will ultimately end in failure.