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The African Union (AU) has a new leader: Mahmoud Ali Youssouf of Djibouti. His election as chairperson of the AU Commission (AUC) marks a historic moment, as he becomes the first from East Africa to hold the position. But with deepening conflicts and shifting global politics, his leadership comes at a time of immense pressure for the continent’s top multilateral body.
Youssouf, who has served as Djibouti’s foreign minister since 2005, was considered an underdog in the race against seasoned Kenyan politician Raila Odinga. The competition was fierce, extending to the seventh round of voting before Youssouf secured the necessary two-thirds support from regional leaders. The victory positions him to represent Africa’s 1.5 billion people at a time when the continent faces economic struggles, internal divisions, and growing geopolitical tensions.
Djibouti’s strategic importance cannot be overlooked. Despite being a small nation, it hosts military bases for global powers, including the United States, China, France, Italy, and Japan. Its geographical position at the crossroads of Africa, Asia, and Europe makes it a key player in international trade and security. Ethiopia, which relies on Djibouti’s ports for access to global markets, may benefit from Youssouf’s leadership.
However, his election comes with its share of political complexities. Kenya’s hosting of Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a rebel faction in the country’s ongoing civil war, has strained relations with the Sudanese government. Some analysts believe this played a role in Odinga’s defeat, as certain AU members opposed Kenya’s involvement in Sudan’s crisis.
Youssouf takes over at a time when Africa is experiencing its highest level of armed conflict since the post-Cold War era of the 1990s. The civil war in Sudan continues to rage, Islamist insurgencies in the Sahel remain unresolved, and tensions in the Democratic Republic of Congo threaten to escalate into a regional war. Meanwhile, climate change and economic instability further complicate efforts to maintain peace and development across the continent.
Another major concern for Youssouf is the financial sustainability of the AU. The organization relies heavily on external funding, with the European Union covering more than half of its annual budget. However, shifting priorities in Western democracies could significantly reduce financial support. The United States, once a key proponent of global multilateralism, has been scaling back its commitments. American officials have recently signaled that Europe must take more responsibility for its own security, raising concerns that similar policy shifts may impact aid to Africa.
The AU has long been criticized for its inefficiency and internal divisions. Some argue that it functions more as an organization for African leaders rather than for the people it represents. Calls for institutional reform have grown louder, with demands for stronger financial independence and more effective conflict resolution strategies. Experts suggest that Youssouf’s ability to unite African nations will be a key factor in his success.
In addition to managing crises, Youssouf will oversee the AU’s 2025 initiative focused on “Justice for Africans and People of African Descent Through Reparations.” The topic of reparations has gained traction, but implementation remains a major challenge. With the rise of far-right politics in Europe and the United States cutting foreign aid, many doubt that former colonial powers will be willing to engage in meaningful discussions on compensation for historical injustices.
Despite these hurdles, some analysts believe the current geopolitical climate presents an opportunity. European countries seeking stronger alliances with Africa may be open to new agreements that include reparations or economic partnerships. However, without a unified African position and clear negotiation strategies, progress on this front may remain slow.
As Youssouf steps into his role, his ability to navigate these complex challenges will define his tenure. The AU’s credibility, financial stability, and influence on global affairs hang in the balance. Whether he can bridge divisions, strengthen Africa’s global standing, and address the continent’s growing crises remains to be seen.