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In recent weeks, Egypt has made two notable deliveries of weaponry to Somalia, sparking regional and international concerns. The shipments included anti-aircraft guns and artillery, some dating back to World War II, and were delivered to Mogadishu via an Egyptian naval vessel in late September and earlier by Egyptian C-130 aircraft. Experts believe Egypt’s support for Somalia ties into its opposition to Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and a broader strategy to counter Ethiopian influence in the Horn of Africa.
Why Egypt is Involved in Somalia’s Arms Supply
Egypt’s involvement in Somalia stems primarily from its conflict with Ethiopia over the Nile. The GERD, now one of the largest hydroelectric projects globally, could potentially limit the Nile’s flow into Egypt, a critical resource for a country where 95% of the population depends on the river for survival. Despite acknowledging Ethiopia’s right to pursue hydroelectric power, Cairo has demanded that Addis Ababa coordinate water management efforts to protect Egypt’s access to the Nile’s resources.
Somalia and Ethiopia’s new alliance with Somaliland, which Somalia views as an illegitimate secessionist region, has further strained relations in the area. Since Somaliland recently granted Ethiopia a long-term lease to build a port near Berbera in exchange for Ethiopian recognition of Somaliland’s autonomy, Somalia has sought support, finding it from Egypt. By aligning with Somalia, Egypt leverages its influence to counter Ethiopian dominance in the Horn of Africa.
The Complex History of Somaliland and Somalia
Somaliland has a unique historical and political status. It first gained independence from the UK in 1960, only to unify with Italian Somaliland to form Somalia. After decades of political strife and violent repression under Somalia’s authoritarian leadership, Somaliland declared independence in 1991. Despite lacking widespread international recognition, Somaliland has since developed a functioning government, vibrant democracy, and economic infrastructure separate from Somalia, making it one of the most stable regions in the Horn of Africa.
While many countries and organizations, including the British Parliament, consider Somaliland a viable candidate for independence, the United States and others, including Egypt, remain cautious about full recognition.
Risky Consequences of Egypt’s Arms Shipments to Somalia
Critics warn that Egypt’s military support could destabilize the region further, as weapons are likely to slip into the hands of extremist factions, including al-Shabaab, an al-Qaida affiliate operating within Somalia. The group’s presence complicates Egypt’s efforts, as arms provided to Somali forces could ultimately end up with al-Shabaab. Somalia’s government has a mixed track record in handling al-Shabaab, occasionally allowing arms transfers to weaken political adversaries.
In addition to fueling local conflict, these arms could also find their way to other regions, such as Sudan and Egypt’s own insurgent groups. Analysts warn that the move could mirror the weapon fallout seen after Libya’s fall in 2011, when unsecured arms circulated among militants across Africa.
Diplomatic Alternatives for Egypt in the Horn of Africa
Some experts suggest Egypt could pursue an alternative strategy: supporting Somaliland’s independence and strengthening ties with the region. Somaliland, with its democratic governance and strong Western alignment, could become a reliable partner for Egypt and potentially counter Ethiopian influence without heightening instability in Somalia.
Egypt’s decision to arm Somalia highlights a complex web of alliances and rivalries within the Horn of Africa, where diplomacy, security, and resource access intersect in high-stakes power struggles.