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Egypt and Djibouti have announced their commitment to contribute troops to the upcoming African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which is set to begin in 2025. AUSSOM will replace the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), as Somalia aims to strengthen its security capabilities with a smaller, more focused international presence.
Ethiopia’s Role and Rising Tensions
The Egyptian and Djiboutian forces are expected to replace Ethiopian troops, who may face expulsion by Somalia due to growing tensions between the two countries. Currently, Ethiopia has approximately 3,000 troops stationed in Somalia under ATMIS. Ethiopia’s involvement has been driven by its interest in combating the Somali militant group Al-Shabaab, which has previously launched cross-border attacks into Ethiopia.
Relations between Ethiopia and Somalia have soured since January, following Ethiopia’s signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland. The MoU grants Ethiopia access to the Somaliland port of Berbera and the potential to establish military and commercial facilities there. Somalia has condemned this agreement, viewing it as a violation of its sovereignty.
Potential Expulsion of Ethiopian Troops from AUSSOM
Due to this ongoing dispute, Somalia has threatened to expel Ethiopian troops by the end of 2024. This has cast doubt on Ethiopia’s participation in the new AUSSOM mission. In response, Egypt and Djibouti have offered to step in and fill the potential void left by Ethiopia’s departure.
Egypt’s Strategic Interest in AUSSOM
Egypt’s decision to contribute to AUSSOM is particularly significant given its existing tensions with Ethiopia. The MoU between Ethiopia and Somaliland has further strained relations, with Egypt expressing explicit support for Somalia and even suggesting the possibility of intervention if requested by Somalia.
Looking Ahead to 2025
AUSSOM is scheduled to commence operations in January 2025, marking a new phase in international efforts to stabilize Somalia as the country seeks to achieve greater security independence.