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A recent trilateral summit in Asmara has marked a significant shift in the dynamics of the Horn of Africa, as Egypt strengthens its alliances with Eritrea and Somalia in response to Ethiopia’s increasing influence in the region. This move raises concerns about potential conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia.
Key Summit Outcomes
In early October, the leaders of Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia convened for a regional cooperation summit, pledging military support to bolster Somalia’s counterterrorism efforts. The agreement to deploy troops under the African Union (AU) mission highlights Cairo’s commitment to addressing regional security challenges while directly responding to perceived threats from Ethiopia.
Egypt and its Strategic Positioning
The summit is seen as a counteraction to Ethiopia’s recent signing of a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland. This agreement allows Ethiopia to lease a part of Somaliland’s coastline in exchange for recognizing the region’s independence. Observers view this as a strategic move that could provide Ethiopia with a military foothold in the region, further complicating Egypt’s position.
For years, Egypt has been embroiled in a diplomatic dispute with Ethiopia regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a project that Cairo claims threatens its national security by potentially reducing its water supply from the Nile. The recent Entebbe Agreement, which was ratified in October, adds another layer of complexity to this already tense relationship, as both Egypt and Sudan perceive it as a threat to their water security.
Egypt Strengthens Regional Alliances
In its efforts to reclaim influence in Africa, Egypt has been actively pursuing high-level diplomatic and military partnerships since 2019. The recent joint military defense agreement with Somalia, along with shipments of arms and military equipment, indicates a shift towards more militarized cooperation. Additionally, Egypt’s defense agreement with Eritrea further consolidates its position in the region.
In October, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi met with Uganda’s Chief of Defence Forces, emphasizing the need for military cooperation. This focus on building stronger regional ties is a clear indication of Egypt’s intent to counter Ethiopia’s influence in the Horn of Africa.
Domestic and Regional Implications
Egypt’s alliances may also reflect internal concerns regarding water and economic security due to the ongoing GERD crisis. With declining revenues from the Suez Canal and recent tensions in neighboring Sudan, Cairo’s actions are driven by both domestic pressures and the need for regional stability.
As Ethiopia continues to assert its influence—particularly through its recognition of Somaliland—Egypt’s growing partnerships with Eritrea and Somalia could be pivotal. By forming a coalition of African nations, Egypt aims to challenge Ethiopia’s ambitions and compel it to negotiate on issues such as the GERD and the Entebbe Agreement.
As Egypt seeks to solidify its alliances and address its water security concerns, the evolving landscape in the Horn of Africa could lead to further tensions. The recent developments signal a potential shift towards military confrontation, making it essential for regional leaders to engage in constructive dialogue to prevent escalation.