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Kenyan President William Ruto announced on Saturday that he and Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni will mediate escalating tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia. The conflict stems from Ethiopia’s agreement to build a port in Somaliland, a breakaway region seeking international recognition as an independent state. This development threatens to destabilize the already fragile Horn of Africa.
Speaking at a regional heads of state summit, Ruto emphasized that stability in Somalia directly impacts the region’s security and economic prospects, stating, “The security of Somalia contributes significantly to the stability of our region, creating an environment for investors and businesses to thrive.”
Somalia’s Opposition to Ethiopia’s Somaliland Deal
Landlocked Ethiopia, which maintains a strong military presence in Somalia to combat al-Shabaab insurgents, has drawn Somalia’s ire by signing a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland. The agreement could lead Ethiopia to formally recognize Somaliland as an independent state in exchange for maritime access through the proposed port.
Since its declaration of independence in 1991, Somaliland has operated with a degree of peace and self-governance, although it remains unrecognized internationally. Ethiopia’s deal, however, has complicated its relations with Somalia, which opposes any move that undermines its territorial integrity.
Somalia’s foreign minister, Ahmed Moallim Fiqi, criticized Ethiopia’s actions, stating that prior resolutions by regional leaders have been ignored by Addis Ababa. However, he expressed hope that Turkey’s ongoing mediation efforts could yield a breakthrough.
Tensions Draw in Egypt and Eritrea
The diplomatic rift has also pulled in Egypt and Eritrea, two regional players with historically strained ties to Ethiopia. Somalia has grown closer to Egypt, a longtime rival of Ethiopia due to disputes over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Eritrea, another adversary of Ethiopia, has also aligned with Somalia, further complicating the geopolitical landscape in the Horn of Africa.
These alliances raise concerns about broader regional instability, as the Horn of Africa becomes a theater for competing political and economic interests.
Failed Mediation Efforts in Turkey
Efforts to resolve the Ethiopia-Somalia dispute through negotiations in Ankara, Turkey, have so far been unsuccessful. Despite multiple meetings between Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Ethiopian officials, no consensus has been reached.
While President Mohamud met with Ruto and Museveni on the sidelines of the summit, his office did not directly confirm Kenya and Uganda’s role as mediators. Previous diplomatic resolutions, including those facilitated by Turkey, have failed to gain traction in Addis Ababa.
Regional Implications of the Dispute
The Horn of Africa is at a crossroads, with the Ethiopia-Somalia rift threatening to unravel fragile regional security. Ethiopia’s involvement in Somaliland represents a significant shift in its foreign policy, one that could further isolate Mogadishu and undermine collective efforts to combat extremist threats such as al-Shabaab.
At the same time, Kenya and Uganda’s mediation offers hope for a peaceful resolution. Both nations have vested interests in maintaining stability in Somalia, which serves as a linchpin for regional economic growth and security.
The Stakes for Somaliland
For Somaliland, the Ethiopia deal represents a major opportunity to achieve international recognition and strengthen its economic position. However, the controversy surrounding the port agreement could overshadow these efforts, leaving Somaliland in a precarious position between global and regional powers.
As diplomatic talks continue, the success of Kenya and Uganda’s mediation will depend on their ability to bridge deep-seated political divides and foster dialogue between Ethiopia and Somalia.