Facebook Twitter (X) Instagram Somali Magazine - People's Magazine
Kenya has begun an effort to mediate between Somalia’s federal government and the Jubbaland administration, following weeks of political tensions and clashes along their shared border.
According to diplomatic sources, the initiative is designed to bring Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Jubbaland leader Ahmed Madobe to the negotiating table for a face-to-face dialogue. Nairobi hopes that direct talks will ease the rising hostilities that have fueled insecurity in the region.
The conflict has been driven largely by disagreements over Somalia’s constitutional amendments and electoral reforms. These proposed changes have divided political leaders and triggered fears of instability within Somalia’s fragile federal system. Jubbaland, one of Somalia’s five federal member states, has been particularly vocal in rejecting the reforms, accusing the central government in Mogadishu of trying to consolidate power at the expense of regional autonomy.
In recent weeks, tensions have spilled into violence. Federal troops and Jubbaland forces clashed in the towns of Raskamboni and Beled Hawo, both located near the Kenya-Somalia border. These confrontations have not only strained relations between Mogadishu and Kismayo but also affected Kenyan communities close to the border, heightening Nairobi’s concern about regional security.
Officials in Kismayo confirmed that Kenya has expressed interest in mediating. However, they noted that no formal agreement has yet been reached with Villa Somalia, the Somali presidency. Jubbaland authorities also accused Mogadishu of sharing misleading information after the federal government dismissed reports of a recent phone call between President Mohamud and Ahmed Madobe as “fake.” This back-and-forth highlights the deep mistrust between the two sides.
Kenya’s involvement in the dispute is not new. Nairobi has long been a key player in Somali peace efforts. It currently hosts hundreds of thousands of Somali refugees and contributes troops to the African Union peacekeeping mission (AUSSOM) operating inside Somalia. Kenya also has direct security interests at stake, as instability in Jubbaland often spills across the border, fueling cross-border attacks and disrupting trade.
For years, Jubbaland has served as a buffer region between Kenya and areas controlled by the militant group al-Shabab. Continued instability risks weakening this buffer, which could create more openings for extremist attacks inside Kenya. Diplomats say this is one of the main reasons Nairobi is pushing to mediate the crisis before it escalates further.
The political dispute comes at a time when Somalia is already facing multiple challenges, including insecurity, humanitarian needs, and an electoral process that has struggled to gain consensus. Analysts warn that the deadlock between Mogadishu and Jubbaland could derail progress toward building a stable governance system and may deepen divisions among other federal member states.
While neither Mogadishu nor Nairobi has made an official public statement on the mediation effort, diplomatic insiders suggest that initial steps are being quietly taken to prepare the ground for talks. Bringing President Mohamud and Ahmed Madobe together for dialogue will not be easy, given the history of mistrust and the stakes involved in constitutional reforms.
Observers say the success of the Kenyan initiative will depend on whether both sides are willing to compromise. For Mogadishu, the challenge lies in proving that constitutional changes are not an attempt to centralize authority. For Jubbaland, it will mean showing flexibility and readiness to engage in a national process that balances federal and regional interests.
Kenya’s mediation reflects its wider role in regional stability. As a neighbor, refugee host, and security partner, Nairobi has much to lose if Somalia sinks deeper into political crisis. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether diplomacy can calm tensions and prevent the conflict from escalating further.
.