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The security landscape in the Horn of Africa faces fresh challenges as paramilitary defectors from Ethiopia resurface in Somalia’s Jubaland region. Following Ethiopia’s release of the Liyu Police leader, numerous members of this paramilitary group, notorious for alleged human rights violations, have moved into Jubaland. In a controversial move, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud appointed one of these defectors to lead the Somali National Army, sparking debates over the nation’s approach to security.
Tensions Escalate Between Ethiopia and Somalia
The return of the Liyu Police comes as Somalia grapples with Ethiopia’s increasing regional assertiveness. Ethiopia has previously aligned itself with Somaliland, a breakaway Somali region, heightening tensions. Addis Ababa’s potential recognition of Somaliland’s independence has placed Mogadishu on high alert, further straining diplomatic ties between the two nations.
Implications for Regional Stability
The defectors’ involvement in Jubaland complicates efforts to stabilize Somalia. Jubaland, a semi-autonomous region, already struggles with political infighting and persistent threats from al-Shabaab. The situation risks undermining Mogadishu’s relations with regional allies, including the African Union and neighboring Kenya, which have played a role in combating al-Shabaab and fostering peace in the region.
A Longstanding Rift between Ethiopia and Somalia
The complex relationship between Ethiopia and Somalia has been shaped by historical territorial disputes and political maneuvering. Ethiopia’s collaboration with Somaliland, alongside its fraught interactions with Jubaland, deepens the divide. The appointment of a former paramilitary figure to a senior military role may further inflame tensions, potentially destabilizing the Somali government’s authority.
Somalia and Ethiopia Look Ahead
As Somalia navigates these internal and external challenges, international stakeholders, including the African Union and United Nations, are likely to monitor the situation closely. Collaborative diplomatic and security strategies will be crucial to prevent further erosion of stability in the Horn of Africa.