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President of Eritrea Isaias Afewerki has refuted claims that the recent tripartite agreement between Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia is aimed at undermining Ethiopia. Speaking during a two-hour televised interview on Eri-TV on November 30, 2024, Isaias described such accusations as “deliberate disinformation” meant to sow discord in the region.
The agreement, signed in October 2024 in Asmara, focuses on fostering cooperation among the three nations. However, its announcement has sparked skepticism, given Ethiopia’s long-standing tensions with Egypt over the Nile and recent strained relations with Somalia.
Eritrean President Addresses Concerns
Isaias emphasized that Eritrea’s foreign policy aims to solve existing challenges rather than create new ones. He stated, “Ethiopia itself is facing very serious problems; we cannot create additional challenges rather than working to resolve this concerning situation.” He dismissed the notion that the agreement had anything to do with Ethiopia, stressing that Egypt’s participation is based on its own priorities and not an effort to provoke regional conflict.
Egypt’s Role in the Alliance
Egypt’s involvement in the agreement has raised eyebrows due to its contentious relationship with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Egypt, which relies on the Nile for most of its water, has expressed fears that Ethiopia’s dam will significantly impact its water supply. Tensions have escalated in recent years, with Egypt advocating for colonial-era agreements granting it a majority share of the Nile’s waters.
Adding to Ethiopia’s concerns, Egypt supplied Somalia with military aid earlier this year, just before the tripartite pact was signed. This military cooperation, along with ongoing border disputes and security concerns, has fueled speculation about the alliance’s strategic implications.
Regional Implications
While Eritrea and Ethiopia ended their two-decade-long conflict with a peace agreement in 2018, relations have cooled in recent years. Observers attribute this to the Pretoria Agreement, which ended the conflict between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Eritrea, which played a key role in the war against the TPLF, was not a signatory to the Pretoria Agreement and has since distanced itself from its outcomes.
During the interview, Isaias dismissed claims that Eritrea’s stance toward Ethiopia had changed, reaffirming that the Pretoria Agreement was externally imposed and irrelevant to Eritrea’s policies.
Future Outlook
The tripartite agreement highlights shifting alliances in the Horn of Africa, a region marked by complex geopolitical rivalries. While President Isaias has downplayed the pact’s impact on Ethiopia, critics remain unconvinced. As tensions over the GERD and other regional disputes persist, the coming months will be pivotal in determining whether these alliances deepen divisions or pave the way for broader cooperation.