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The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is witnessing a dangerous escalation in its conflict as shifting regional forces undermine peace efforts and plunge the country deeper into instability. The fragile peace bid, spearheaded by the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), has unraveled amid growing tensions and competing interests among neighboring states.
The conflict in eastern DRC, fueled by the resurgence of the M23 rebel group and the proliferation of armed militias, has displaced millions and created one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises. The EAC Regional Force (EACRF), deployed in November 2022 to stabilize the region, was initially seen as a beacon of hope. Comprising troops from Kenya, Uganda, Burundi, and South Sudan, the force aimed to neutralize armed groups, protect civilians, and support political dialogue. However, its withdrawal in December 2023 marked the beginning of a new phase of instability.
The withdrawal of the EACRF was driven by mounting disagreements over its mandate and funding. Member states struggled to align their objectives, with some prioritizing military intervention while others advocated for diplomatic solutions. The lack of cohesion within the EAC, coupled with limited financial resources, rendered the force ineffective in achieving its goals. The departure of the EACRF left a security vacuum that armed groups, including M23, quickly exploited.
The involvement of neighboring countries has further complicated the situation. Rwanda, accused of backing M23, has faced criticism for its alleged role in destabilizing the region. Uganda’s deployment of troops to counter the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) has raised suspicions of coordination with M23, while Burundi’s withdrawal from South Kivu has left critical areas vulnerable to rebel advances. These competing interests have undermined regional unity and fueled mistrust among stakeholders.
The SADC Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC), deployed to contain the M23 threat, has also faced challenges. A deadly firefight between SAMIDRC forces and M23 rebels in January 2025 resulted in the deaths of 20 soldiers from South Africa, Malawi, and Tanzania, highlighting the risks of direct confrontation. The mission’s limited mandate and resources have hindered its ability to address the root causes of the conflict.
The regionalization of the DRC crisis has raised concerns about the prospect of another multinational Congo war. The M23’s rapid territorial gains, including the capture of Goma and Bukavu, have brought the group closer to controlling the mineral-rich Kivu provinces. The potential for direct clashes between Rwandan and Burundian forces, coupled with Uganda’s involvement, has heightened fears of a broader conflict.
The United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO), which has been present in the country for over two decades, has struggled to adapt to the evolving security landscape. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has called for urgent reforms to make peacekeeping more effective, emphasizing the need for stronger collaboration with regional organizations like the African Union.
As the DRC conflict enters a new phase, the focus remains on finding sustainable solutions to address the root causes of instability. Analysts have emphasized the importance of tackling issues such as governance deficits, resource exploitation, and ethnic tensions. Strengthening regional cooperation and fostering trust among stakeholders will be critical to achieving lasting peace.
The unraveling of the Congo peace bid serves as a stark reminder of the complexities of regional conflicts and the challenges of maintaining stability in the face of competing interests. As the international community continues to monitor the situation, the need for coordinated and inclusive approaches to conflict resolution has never been more urgent.