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The long-standing tension between Ethiopia and Somalia may finally see a resolution thanks to Turkish mediation efforts. A high-level meeting on December 11, 2024, in Turkey, between Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, has reportedly eased relations and opened new avenues for cooperation. The two leaders discussed key security and political issues, particularly Ethiopia’s potential inclusion in the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM).
Background: A Year of Strained Relations
Ethiopia and Somalia, neighbors in the Horn of Africa, have faced heightened tensions over the past year. Disagreements over territorial boundaries, military operations, and regional influence had led to deteriorated diplomatic relations. Ethiopia’s paramilitary forces had altered the balance of power in the region, and Somalia’s growing alignment with Kenya further complicated ties with Addis Ababa.
The tensions had also impacted the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), with Ethiopia’s participation in peacekeeping efforts called into question. However, the meeting in Turkey marked a turning point, with both nations agreeing to de-escalate and explore collaborative solutions under the African Union’s framework.
Turkey’s Role in Mediation
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan played a significant role in facilitating the dialogue. Turkey’s strong ties with both Ethiopia and Somalia have positioned it as a neutral mediator in the Horn of Africa. The successful mediation reflects Turkey’s growing influence in African diplomacy and its strategic interest in maintaining stability in the region.
The discussions resulted in Ethiopia expressing interest in contributing troops to AUSSOM, a move that signals Ethiopia’s willingness to support Somalia’s stabilization while ensuring its own regional security interests are safeguarded.
The Future of AUSSOM
The African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), established to replace ATMIS, aims to maintain peace and support Somali forces in combating insurgencies. Ethiopia’s potential participation in AUSSOM could strengthen the mission’s effectiveness and foster greater regional cooperation.
Somalia has welcomed Ethiopia’s involvement, viewing it as a step toward building trust and addressing mutual security concerns. Both nations recognize that regional stability is crucial for economic growth, counterterrorism efforts, and mitigating external influences in the Horn of Africa.
Broader Implications for the Region
The thawing of relations between Ethiopia and Somalia could have a ripple effect across the Horn of Africa. Improved cooperation may reduce the influence of militant groups like Al-Shabaab, which thrive in regions plagued by political instability and distrust among neighboring countries.
Additionally, this reconciliation could open doors for broader regional trade and development initiatives, aligning with efforts by organizations like IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development) to promote economic integration.
Challenges Ahead
Despite the promising outcomes of the Turkish-brokered talks, challenges remain. Historical mistrust between Ethiopia and Somalia will require sustained diplomatic efforts to ensure long-term cooperation. Additionally, Ethiopia’s internal political dynamics, including ethnic conflicts and border disputes, could complicate its commitments to regional missions.
Somalia, on the other hand, must navigate its complex relationships with other neighbors, particularly Kenya, which has been a key ally in recent years. Balancing these relationships while fostering regional unity will be crucial for Mogadishu.
Conclusion
The December 11 meeting in Turkey represents a significant milestone in Ethiopia-Somalia relations. By addressing shared security concerns and exploring joint participation in AUSSOM, both nations are taking steps toward a more stable and cooperative future. Turkey’s role as a mediator highlights the importance of international collaboration in resolving regional conflicts.
This development underscores the need for continued diplomatic engagement, regional integration, and a commitment to addressing the root causes of instability in the Horn of Africa.