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The Horn of Africa is seeing increased tension as Egypt and Ethiopia’s rivalry over regional influence plays out in Somalia, signaling the risk of new proxy conflicts. Recent developments include Egypt’s deployment of military personnel to Somalia and Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland, both raising concerns for regional stability.
Egypt’s Military Moves in Somalia
Egypt’s involvement in Somalia began with a defense pact signed in August 2024, after which Egypt committed troops to assist Somalia in combating the al-Shabaab insurgency. Additionally, Egypt plans to deploy 5,000 soldiers as part of the African Union Support Mission in Somalia, a move that has alarmed Ethiopia. Egypt’s longstanding rivalry with Ethiopia centers on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which Egypt sees as a critical threat to its Nile water access.
Ethiopia’s Alliance with Somaliland
In response to Egypt’s actions, Ethiopia formalized its support for Somaliland, the self-declared independent region within Somalia, by recognizing its sovereignty and establishing a port access deal. Somaliland’s leaders have ordered the closure of Egyptian facilities in the capital, Hargeisa, indicating a further division within the region.
Regional Impact and Rising Risks From the Ethiopia and Egypt Conflict
Egypt’s presence is viewed by Ethiopia as a strategic threat, given the Nile River dispute and Egypt’s potential to support local proxies. The Horn of Africa region, already dealing with instability, risks further destabilization as Ethiopia and Egypt align with different allies. Eritrea has also shifted support, now aligning with Egypt and Somalia, adding another layer of complexity to the regional dynamics. Analysts warn that any escalation could fuel the rise of insurgent groups like al-Shabaab, which exploits weakened state structures.
Ethipia and Egypt: Path to De-Escalation
De-escalation could involve Ethiopia pursuing port access in Somaliland without full diplomatic recognition, which would lower tensions with Somalia. Egypt, meanwhile, could focus on international diplomacy for GERD negotiations through forums like the United Nations and African Union, instead of pursuing military influence in the Horn of Africa.
The African Union and Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) are advised to mediate and encourage regional dialogue to avoid the risk of prolonged proxy wars, which could disrupt the already fragile stability in the Horn of Africa.