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Jubaland, one of Somalia’s federal states, is facing a political crisis as rival candidates prepare for parallel presidential elections on November 25, 2024. The elections have been marred by disagreements over the rules, candidate eligibility, and electoral processes.
At the heart of the controversy is President Ahmed Mohamed Islam Madobe’s bid for a third term. Critics argue his decision violates the Jubaland Constitution, which limits a president to two terms. Madobe, however, asserts that a constitutional amendment in June 2024 permits his candidacy. This claim is disputed by rivals, who contend the amendment was enacted by an expired parliament.
Rival Camps Divide the Electorate
Jubaland’s Electoral and Boundaries Commission announced official elections for November 25, but opposition leaders Abdi Ali Raghe and Dr. Abdullahi Ali plan to hold parallel elections, accusing Madobe of excluding them from the process.
Raghe and Ali have criticized Madobe for failing to address poverty and security challenges in Jubaland. Raghe promises to enhance peace through community engagement, while Ali has called for federal government support to ensure a change in leadership for the region’s stability.
International Concerns and Mediation Calls
International partners, including the African Union, United Nations, and the European Union, have expressed concerns over escalating tensions. In a joint statement, they urged stakeholders to engage in inclusive discussions and avoid provocations.
“We encourage all parties to re-engage in open dialogue before finalizing any electoral processes,” the statement read. They emphasized the need for electoral reforms aligned with Somalia’s long-term goal of one-person, one-vote elections.
Federal Government Opposes Jubaland Elections
The Somali federal government has voiced its opposition to Jubaland’s elections, preferring synchronized polls across all federal states in 2025. Prime Minister Hamza Barre criticized Madobe’s leadership, likening his third-term bid to “stealing a camel and expecting it to give birth to a legitimate calf.”
Regional and Security Implications
Jubaland’s stability is vital for regional security, as it borders Kenya and Ethiopia. The region is seen as a buffer against Al-Shabaab insurgents. Kenya, in particular, has strong ties with Jubaland and considers its stability crucial for securing its borders.
However, the ongoing political turmoil threatens these efforts, with experts warning that divisions could undermine progress in the fight against Al-Shabaab.
A Crucial Moment for Jubaland’s Future
As the rival camps prepare for their respective elections, the stakes for Jubaland are high. The outcome will not only shape its political landscape but also impact its relationship with the federal government and its role in regional security.