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Between October 12 and November 15, 2024, Kenya recorded 86 incidents of political violence and 63 fatalities, according to ACLED data. Mandera County emerged as the most volatile region, experiencing 10 armed clashes, primarily involving al-Shabaab and security forces, resulting in 14 fatalities. Nakuru County also reported significant fatalities, with seven deaths during the same period.
The most frequent event types were riots, with 49 recorded incidents, especially in Machakos County, and battles, which accounted for 19 events. Despite the unrest, Kenya has not witnessed the anticipated post-impeachment turmoil following the removal of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua in October.
Land Disputes Spark Deadly Clashes in Tana River County
In October, communal violence erupted in Tana River County, with disputes over land use between the Wardei pastoralists and Wailwana farmers claiming 21 lives. The violence is tied to a controversial “village cluster programme” initiated by Governor Dhadho Gaddae Godhana, aimed at resettling communities to higher ground to mitigate flooding along the Tana River.
Tensions escalated due to concerns over access to ancestral land, leading to a series of clashes in early October. On October 5, the Kenyan government responded by deploying Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) troops and declaring affected areas in Bangale and North Tana sub-counties as “disturbed and dangerous,” granting security forces broader operational powers.
Despite reconciliation efforts led by central and local government figures, including public meetings and mediations, lasting peace remains elusive. The violence has underscored the need for inclusive dialogue and long-term solutions to land-related conflicts.
Al-Shabaab Escalates Cross-Border Attacks in Mandera County
Al-Shabaab’s activities in Mandera County have intensified, with the militant group launching 11 attacks between October and mid-November. Most incidents targeted Kenyan security forces in Lafey and Fino wards, near the Somalia border. These attacks resulted in 14 reported fatalities, including eight in a single ambush on October 19.
Kenyan forces have accused al-Shabaab of using Somalia’s Gedo region as a base for these cross-border assaults. The Kenya Air Force has responded by dropping leaflets warning of imminent military action, although no operations have been launched. Mandera’s proximity to Gedo, where al-Shabaab has increased its activity, has made the region particularly vulnerable.
Political and Security Implications
The escalating violence comes amid Kenya’s political transition following the impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua. His successor, Kithure Kindiki, sworn in on November 1, faces mounting pressure to address these multifaceted security threats.
Kindiki’s appointment, which appeased the GEMA communities, signals an attempt to balance political interests. However, the lack of a new Cabinet Secretary for the Ministry of Interior has raised concerns about the government’s preparedness to handle Kenya’s internal security challenges.
Conclusion
The dual threats of communal violence and al-Shabaab insurgency highlight Kenya’s need for robust conflict resolution mechanisms and effective counterterrorism strategies. Addressing these crises will require not only military action but also political and social reforms to promote peace and stability.