Kenya warned on Friday that El Nino rains were expected to plague the nation over the October-December season and the early months of 2024, with most places anticipating severe rainfall that might lead to flooding.
In an update, David Gikungu, director of meteorological services at the Kenya Meteorological Department, stated that their model estimates and expert evaluation indicated that rainfall will be above-average over the season.
“There is a very high likelihood (approximately 90% chance) of El Nino continuing through the rest of the year and into early 2024,” Gikungu added.
He added that El Nino is frequently connected with severe rains and flooding during the October-December season, particularly in East Africa, and that the recent drought that afflicted Kenya is now past, paving the way for El Nino owing to “tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies.”
El Nino impacts, he claims, are more evident throughout the time and are related with above-average rainfall across Kenya.
However, the intensity of the El Nino and other variables, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, a phenomena that brings high rains, as well as local circumstances, impact the outcome of the rainfall.
Kenya suffered its worst El Nino rains in 1997, while the country just faced the worst drought since the 1950s.
The projected severe rains and drought, which also hit Ethiopia and Somalia in the Horn of Africa, put millions of people at risk of famine and death.