Ukraine’s corn and wheat exports are expected to plummet in the marketing year 2023-24 as a result of Russia’s continuous invasion, according to Reuters, citing the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA).
According to Nikolay Gorbachov, president of the UGA, the corn harvest will be 21.1 million tonnes, down from 27.3 million tonnes the previous season due to a smaller planted area. Corn exports are predicted to fall 30% to 19 million tonnes in 2023-24, from 27 million tonnes in 2022-23.
“The lower export forecast is due to a lower (crop) area, but it’s also because we compare it to the high ones in the current campaign, when we had huge stocks,” Gorbachov told Reuters at the GrainCom conference in Geneva, Switzerland, on Tuesday.
Ukraine’s wheat production is expected to shrink from 20.2 million tonnes last year to 17 million tonnes this year. According to Gorbachov, 14 million tonnes of this could be exported in the coming season, down from 15.5 million in 2022-23.
Sunflower seed production is expected to increase 20% to 12.65 million tonnes this year, while soybean output is expected to increase to 4.4 million tonnes from 3.7 million tonnes in 2022. Rapeseed output in 2023 is expected to be 3.7 million tonnes, slightly more than the 3.64 million tonnes produced last year, according to the UGA.
Ukraine is a key exporter of corn and wheat to global markets, as well as the largest source of sunflower oil, but as its war with Russia approaches its 16th month, it has battled to maintain production levels and grain handling facilities.
Meanwhile, the United Nations reports that the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which supports the export of Ukrainian agricultural products, is set to expire on May 18 and that efforts to prolong it are ongoing. The UN and Turkey mediated the agreement last July, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports in February. Russia has stated that it will not prolong the agreement until its demands for removing barriers to its own grain and fertilizer exports are realized.
According to the UN, almost 30 million tonnes of grain and foodstuffs have been transported from Ukraine as part of the Black Sea agreement, including 600,000 tonnes for World Food Programme humanitarian operations in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and Yemen.
The European Union has also been assisting Ukraine’s agricultural exports via overland routes through Eastern European countries via solidarity lanes to other member states and third-party countries.